On behalf of the Initiative Energien Speichern e.V. (INES), Aurora Energy Research GmbH has prepared a brief analysis of the hydrogen core network.
In particular, different demand and supply scenarios were to be considered when planning the H2 network and the import capacities to be derived from this in order to achieve efficient development of the hydrogen networks.
Transmission system operators‘ draft application: around 10,000 km of H2 network with 279 TWh consumption capacity identified
As part of the National Hydrogen Strategy (NWS) and in accordance with Section 28r of the EnWG-E, the transmission system operators (TSOs) submitted a draft application to the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) on 15 November 2023 for the development of an efficient hydrogen grid infrastructure.
The draft proposes the creation of a hydrogen network with a pipeline length of 9,721 km. The proposed H2 network would have a total of 13 cross-border interconnection points (GÜP), which would enable H2 imports and exports up to a capacity of 59 GWh/h.
It is designed for a hydrogen consumption volume of 279 TWh. The hydrogen network should be fully operational by 2032. Aurora Energy Research GmbH carried out a brief analysis of the draft proposal on behalf of INES.
Aurora Energy Research: Demand estimates significantly lower
For the medium-term perspective up to 2030, the Aurora scenarios Central1 and Net Zero2 show significantly lower hydrogen consumption volumes than assumed for the H2 grid planning, at 73 and 123 TWh respectively. The demand estimates of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection (BMWK) in the update of the National Hydrogen Strategy (NWS) for 2030 are also lower. The NWS assumes demand of between 95 and 130 TWh in 2030.
According to the Aurora brief analysis, import capacities of around 10 GWh/h are required at border crossing points in the medium term to fully cover hydrogen consumption from the central scenario, but these must be supplemented by necessary redundancies such as N-1 security. The proposed import capacities of 59 GWh/h therefore represent a significant overbuilding compared to the average and necessary capacities in the medium term.
Outlook up to 2050: medium-term overbuilding of the H2 infrastructure by TSOs targeted
According to the latest announcements, the aim is to significantly overbuild the actual grid requirements in order to prepare the necessary grid infrastructure for future hydrogen requirements at an early stage.
In the long-term perspective up to 2050, the Aurora Central and Net Zero scenarios show significantly higher hydrogen consumption volumes of 303 and 562 TWh respectively. However, further analysis shows that the Central scenario still only requires 28 GWh/h of pipeline-based import capacities.
Even in the Net Zero scenario, the required cross-border capacities are only 52 GWh/h. Although the results were not obtained as part of hydraulic hydrogen network modelling, they illustrate that various scenarios could lead to a significantly lower demand for import capacities.
Summary of the study results
According to Aurora, it can be concluded from the brief analysis that the current hydrogen network planning follows a very uncertain planning perspective. The market ramp-up for green hydrogen is still in its infancy. Oversizing the network in the medium term could prevent infrastructural bottlenecks from hindering the market ramp-up. However, in view of the considerable uncertainties in planning, there is also a major risk of creating overcapacity not only in the medium term, but also in the long term.
Frederik Beelitz, Principal at Aurora, summarises the short analysis as follows: "Aurora's rough review in the short analysis shows that a more detailed analysis is needed to identify the selection of robust core network components and to target the overbuilding of the network and import capacities more precisely. The demand volumes and, in particular, the demand profile during the year should be concretised."
As part of the brief analysis, the assumption of the TSO's hydrogen network planning that demand has a strong structure was adopted. Whether the flexibility required for this can actually be offered via imports is also associated with great uncertainty. Given the large geological potential for hydrogen storage in Germany, it can be assumed that flexibility will be provided more domestically.
In a more detailed analysis, a greater provision of capacity through storage in Germany should therefore be investigated in order to reduce the import capacities of the cross-border interconnection points and thus the grid investment costs.
Sebastian Heinermann, Managing Director of INES, comments on the publication of the Aurora short analysis as follows: "In view of the enormous quantities of hydrogen consumed, the hydrogen core network appears to be more of a hydrogen target network, and the truth is that we cannot yet see exactly what the target is. The Aurora short analysis shows us how great the uncertainties in network planning currently still are and how great the risk is that overcapacities will now be developed that may never be utilised. We therefore recommend identifying those parts of the hydrogen network for which there is relevance across several scenarios. For these parts of the network, dimensioning for longer-term requirements seems sensible."
(Quelle: Initiative Energien Speichern e.V. - INES)
