The recent study by Agora Energiewende „Wärmenetze: klimaneutral, wirtschaftlich und bezahlbar. Wie kann ein zukunftssicherer Business Case aussehen?“ sheds light on the potential of heating networks for climate-neutral supply. Based on the new „climate-neutral Germany 2045 scenario“, the report analyses how a third of homes can be supplied with district heating by 2045. The study presents various economic and technical challenges that stand in the way of the ambitious expansion of the district heating supply and provides recommendations for action to economically secure the heating transition. Three case studies are used to develop transformation paths and analyse their cost structure.
Necessary change in the heating network
The conversion of heat generation to renewable and climate-friendly sources such as geothermal energy and waste heat is essential in order to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and enable socially acceptable heat supply costs.
According to calculations by Agora Energiewende, the investment requirement is around
5 billion euros per year, which is twice as much as the current investment volume of district heating companies. The study shows that high electricity prices, financing problems and uncertainties about subsidies are currently hampering the economic viability of district heating.
Challenges and opportunities for district heating suppliers
The study cites lower electricity prices and stable subsidy conditions as decisive levers for an economically viable district heating supply. However, the federal subsidy for efficient heating networks (BEW), which provides around 0.8 billion euros annually, expires in 2028 and should be extended and increased.
The study also recommends a legal entitlement to funding for district heating from renewable energies. The involvement of private capital and new investor groups is also a key point, whereby state risk protection could make it easier to get started.
Strengthening consumer confidence
Discussions about high additional payments as a result of fossil fuel crises and investigations by the Federal Cartel Office emphasise the importance of consumer protection. As around 80 % of district heating consumers live in rented accommodation and often have lower incomes, measures to reduce electricity tax, reform network charges and provide stable subsidies are crucial.
The study proposes setting up a platform for price transparency and price supervision in order to avoid price distortions in the district heating market. Only fair and transparent prices will create the necessary acceptance among households.
Urgency of a rapid network expansion
An accelerated expansion of the heating network with 100,000 new connections per year is necessary to achieve the target of three million households by 2045. Agora warns that delayed implementation could tempt consumers to choose alternative forms of heating, which would place a particular burden on low-income households.
Simon Müller, Director of Agora Energiewende, emphasises the need to combine the economic interests of suppliers with the needs of district heating customers in order to enable a successful heating transition.
The full study is available free of charge at www.agora-energiewende.de.
(Source: Agora Energiewende)
