Protectionism of the USA
It is not yet clear to what extent the rapid economic growth of recent years will now be dampened and slowed down by Donald Trump's renewed presidency. In particular, if the Trump administration were to impose a 25% import tariff on all goods from Mexico, as announced, this would have a significant negative impact on the Mexican economy, as around 80% of Mexican exports go to the USA. However, this would also have such drastic negative consequences for the US economy that economic experts are already predicting that the US will not be able to sustain this tariff policy for long without suffering considerable damage itself.
Mexico's raw materials and energy situation
Despite the USA's increasing industrial protectionism under Trump, Mexico has now also become a major producer and supplier of crude oil and natural gas. In 2022, the country was the eleventh largest oil producer in the world with a production of 1.9 million barrels per day; a slight increase is expected for 2023 and 2024.
Despite this high production quota, Mexico is dependent on energy imports, particularly for natural gas. Although the country produces around 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year, it has to import more than 50 billion cubic meters annually to satisfy its hunger for energy.
Mexico makes up for the shortfall in its own gas production by importing pipeline gas from the USA and LNG. The country was one of the main beneficiaries of the US shale gas boom. US natural gas exports have skyrocketed over the past decade, making domestic energy prices vulnerable to international market conditions.
Driving force steel industry
The steel industry is one of Mexico's key industries. With a steel production of around 16.2 million tons in 2023 (Statista: “Mexico's steel production”), Mexico took 15th place in the global ranking. The industry benefits from the country's strategic location, low production costs and close links to international markets.
Major international automotive cluster
The automotive industry in Mexico is one of the most important customers of the steel industry. With ten international car manufacturers, including BMW, Ford, Volkswagen and Nissan, as well as numerous suppliers, Mexico has built up a strong automotive base. In 2023, over 4 million passenger cars were produced in Mexico. The use of steel for car bodies, chassis and other vehicle components is essential.
The center for automotive production is located in regions such as Guanajuato, Querétaro and Coahuila. Particularly noteworthy is the role of Monterrey, which is often referred to as the “Detroit of Mexico” due to its highly skilled workforce and established infrastructure.